Trend of HIV in India over a period of Time: A Time Series Approach
Keywords:
HIV Trends, AIDS Mortality, People Living with HIV (PLHIV), Time Series Analysis, Quadratic Trend Model, Forecasting, Least Squares MethodAbstract
This study investigates the trend of HIV in India over a period of time using time series analysis. Time series analysis helps organization understand the underlying causes trends patterns over time. In this case a statistical model is constructed on PLHIV (people living with HIV) and deaths due AIDS in India over a period of time. This model is based on dependent variable such as people living with HIV and people deaths due to AIDS and independent variable which is time period.
The purpose of the study is to build Time Series model using method of curve fitting by principal of least square which provide the future estimate of PLHIV (People living with HIV) and deaths due to AIDS. The data set from which model is built includes PLHIV(people living with HIV) and deaths due to AIDS from 2010-2021. Time series isolate and measure the effects of various components. From this model we will understand the past behaviour of the data and able to predict the future tendency of people getting affected and the pattern of deaths of HIV patients.
